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The Economic Effect of Aging Populations

April 2 and 4, 2001


Contents:

 Agenda  Sources for Presentations
 Links  Supplements
 Handouts Papers

(To view a paper, click on the name of the author. To view the sources for a paper, click on the title. )


Provisional Agenda

 

I. OPENING REMARKS

 

II. THE MACROECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF POPULATION AGING

 

"How Will Population Aging Affect the Economy?"

(Damon Gacicia)

"Should We Increase the National Savings Rate? -YES!"

(Benjamin Russell)

"Should We Increase the National Savings Rate? -NO!"

(Elizabeth Gamson)

 

III. WHAT WILL POPULATION AGING DO TO THE SAVINGS RATE?

 

"Is Population Aging a Major Cause of Falling Savings Rates? - YES!"

(Jaymie Gross)

"Is Population Aging a Major Cause of Falling Savings Rates? - NO!"

(David Mills)

"Do The Elderly Contribute to National Savings?"

(Lowell Alexander)

 

V. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

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Sources for Presentations:

 

II. THE MACROECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF POPULATION AGING

 

"How Will Population Aging Affect the Economy?"

 

Paul Johnson and Jane Falkingham, "Aging and the Macroeconomy" in Ageing and Economic Welfare, Sage Publications, Newberry Park, California, 1992, Ch. 6, pp.152-176.

 

Paul R. Masson and Ralph W. Tryon, "Macroeconomic Effects of Projected Population Aging in Industrial Countries", IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 37, No. 3, September 1990, pp. 453-485.

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"Should We Increase the National Savings Rate? -YES!

 

Gary Burtless, "The Fiscal Challenge of an Aging Population" in Olivia S. Mitchell, (editor), As the Workforce Ages: Costs, Benefits, and Policy Challenges, ILR Press, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, 1993, Ch. 11, pp.225-252.

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"Should We Increase the National Savings Rate? -NO!"

 

D. M. Cutler, James M. Poterba, Louise M. Scheiner and Lawrence H. Summers, "An Aging Society: Opportunity or Challenge?", Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 1, 1990, pp. 1-56.

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III. WHAT WILL POPULATION AGING DO TO THE SAVINGS RATE?

 

"Is Population Aging a Major Cause of the Falling Savings Rates? - YES!"

 

Alan J. Auerbach and Laurence J. Kotlikoff, "The Impact of Demographic Transition on Capital Formation" Anna M. Rappaport and Sylvester J. Schreiber, (editors) Demography and Retirement: the Twenty-first Century, Praeger, Westport, Conn., 1993, Chapter 5, pp. 163-187.

 

Angus S. Deaton and Christina H. Paxson, "The Effects of Economic and Population Growth on National Saving and Inequality", Demography, Vol. 34, No. 1 February 1997, pp. 97-114.

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"Is Population Aging a Major Cause of Falling Savings Rates? - NO!"

 

Michael D. Hurd, The Effects of Demographic Trends on Consumption, Saving and Government Expenditures in the U.S., NBER Working Paper, No. 4601, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts, December 1993.

 

Matthew Higgins and Jeffrey Williamson, "Age Structure Dynamics in Asia and Dependence on Foreign Capital" in Population and Development Review, Vol. 23, Number 2, June 1997, pp. 261-294.

 

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"Do The Elderly Contribute to National Savings?"

 

Axel Borsch-Supan, "Saving and Consumption Patterns of the Elderly: the German Case", Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 5, No. 4, November 1992, pp. 289-303.

 

D. N. Weil, "The Saving of the Elderly in Micro and Macro Data", Quarterly Journal of Economics, February 1994, Vol. 109, No. 1, pp. 55-81.

 

Richard Disney, "Aging and Saving", Fiscal Studies, 1996, Vol. 17, No. 2, pp. 83-101.

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Links

Syllabi:

Bibliographies:

 

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Supplements

Contents:


Academic Articles:


Why do the elderly retire?

Hurd, Michael D., "The Effect of Labor Market Rigidities on the Labor Force Behavior of Older Workers", (Chapter 1) in Advances in the Economics of Aging, David Wise (editor), 1997, pp. 11-60.

and

Lumsdaine, Robin L. , James H. Stock and David A. Wise, "Why are Retirement Rates So High at Age 65?", (Chapter 2) in Advances in the Economics of Aging, David Wise (editor), 1997, pp. 61-82.

and

Leonesio, Michael, "The Economics of Retirement: A Nontechnical Guide", in the Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 59, No. 4, Winter 1996, pp. 29-50.

 

Why are the elderly retiring at younger ages?

David Wise, "More Older People Living Longer, Working Less", (Chapter 1) in Facing the Wave, edited by David Wise, Hoover Institution Press, 1997, pp. 1-29. VG

 

Is population aging driving the stock market?

Bakshi, Gurdip S. ans Ziwu Chen, "Baby Boom, Population Aging, and Capital Markets" in the Journal of Business, Vol. 67, No. 2, 1994, pp. 165-202.

 

What are the aging problems of the industrialized countries?

OECD, "Introduction and Overview", (Chapter 1) in Aging in OECD Countries, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Social Policy Studies No. 20, 1996, pp. 9-27.

 

Is international investment the only way to protect the elderly in Europe?

Borsh-Supan, Axel, "Age and Cohort Effects in Saving and the German Retirement System" in Ricerche Economiche, Vol. 49, 1995, pp. 207-233.

 

Is population aging the basic cause of Japan's economic problems?

Ezrati, Milton, "Japan's Aging Economics", in Foreign Affairs, May/June 1997, pp. 96-104.


Is the Savings Rate Too Low?

Are Americans saving enough for their old age?

Moore, James F. and Olivia S. Mitchell, Projected Retirement Wealth and Savings Adequacy in the Health and Retirement Study, NBER Working Paper No. 6240, National Bureau of Economic Research, October 1997. FR

and

Bernheim, B. Douglas, "The Adequacy of Personal Retirement Saving: Issues and Options", (Chapter 2) in Facing the Wave, edited by David Wise, Hoover Institution Press, 1997, pp. 30-56. VG

 

How can we encourage rich people to save more of their incomes?

Shoven, John B and David Wise, "Keeping Savers from Saving", (Chapter 3) in Facing the Wave, edited by David Wise, Hoover Institution Press, 1997, pp. 57-87. FR

 

Do elderly Japanese save or dissave?

Horioka, Charles Yuji, and N. Kasuga, K. Yamazaki and W. Watanabe, "Do the Aged Dissave in Japan? Evidence From Micro Data", in Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Vol. 10, 1997, pp. 295-311.

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Handouts

II. THE MACROECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF POPULATION AGING

 

"How Will Population Aging Affect the Economy?"

"Should We Increase the National Savings Rate? -YES!"

"Should We Increase the National Savings Rate? -NO!"

 

III. WHAT WILL POPULATION AGING DO TO THE SAVINGS RATE?

 

"Is Population Aging a Major Cause of Falling Savings Rates? - YES!"

"Is Population Aging a Major Cause of Falling Savings Rates? - NO!"

"Do The Elderly Contribute to National Savings?"

 

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Papers

II. THE MACROECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF POPULATION AGING

Aging and the Macroeconomy

Should Increase the National Savings Rate-YES

Should Increase the National Savings Rate-NO

 

III. WHAT WILL POPULATION AGING DO TO THE SAVINGS RATE?

"Is Population Aging a Major Cause of Falling Savings Rates? - YES!"

Do The Elderly Contribute to National Savings?

 

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