The ever-present question in population studies is the effect of population growth on economic standards. One important issue is the effects of fertility rates on the investment in children. In developing countries it is crucial to look at children’s education since it is a way of investing for the future, resulting in economic development. This paper will examine two separate studies conducted in the area of fertility and education by John Knodel and Deborah S. DeGraff, Richard E. Bilsborrow and Alejandro Herrin. Knodel explores the macro and micro results of a decline in fertility on the educational attainment of children in Thailand. Degraff et al investigates the influence of family size and sibling position on how children’s time is divided among activities, including school, market work, and home production in the Philippines.
In studying the effect of high fertility on children’s educational attainment, many different measures where used. In "Children’s Education in the Philippines: Does High Fertility Matter" Degraff et al used the allocation of children’s time as an indicator of welfare. The children’s time was divided into four categories: school attendance, income-generating work (market work), home production (such as caring for younger siblings) and leisure time. The model also included family factors and community conditions, which could have an effect on how children spend their time. These factors included measures, such as the parent’s education attainment, income, availability of schools, presence of day care facilities and child labor wages. The data are from a 1983 survey done in the Bicol region, one of the poorest areas of the Philippines.
The results of Degraff et al are extensive and support the claim that large family size reduces investment in children. Participation in home production or a market job reduced the number of children receiving schooling. Looking specifically at household dynamics, children were less likely to be enrolled in school if they had siblings of any age. One explanation is that less resources are allocated to each child as family size grows. Contrarily, as family size increases there could be an increase in the need for children to work. Degraff et al assumed that decisions about children’s participation were made on the basis of maximizing total family utility. This involves weighing short and long run benefits and costs. The parents must constantly evaluate the long-term benefits of schooling, such as increased income in the future, with the short-term benefits of increased present earnings or greater contribution in the home.
One interesting result of the study was that the first born children in a family were more likely to spend time at a market job, and therefore less likely to be enrolled in school. This discredits the claim that the oldest children live part of their lives free of competition with other siblings, and therefore receive greater welfare, in this case education. This is more likely to occur for male children than for females because males are more likely to be involved in market labor jobs.
It is important to keep in mind that Degraff et al did not measure the amount of time spent doing each activity, but merely participation in that activity. One strength of the study is the inclusion of the effects of sibling’s position in the family and sex on the welfare of that child. For male children high fertility results in less school attendance regardless of their sibling position. For females this is only true if the child is an older sibling. The reasoning is that older female siblings are often expected to stay at home and care for their younger siblings. Due to culturally established gender roles female children are more likely than males to be involved in this home production. In general, high fertility means an increase in participation of children in home production regardless of the child’s sex or position in the family.
Degraff et al’s findings pertain to some important policy indications for the Philippines. High fertility means greater demands on the allocation of children’s time and is negatively related to educational attainment. Degraff et al suggests that pursuing family planning programs, which would help lower the fertility rate, would be a sensible decision for the Philippines’ government.
Although Degraff et al focused primarily on the micro level it is also important to look at the macro effects of a changing fertility rate on educational attainment. This is done in Knodel’s study, "Fertility Decline and Children’s Education in Thailand: Some Macro and Micro Effects". Thailand is a country of interest because the fertility rate declined from over 6 births per women to just over 2 births per women in the span of two decades, from 1960 to 1980. The educational system in Thailand consists of seven years of primary schooling followed by non-mandatory secondary school. Secondary school is further divided into two levels, lower and upper, each lasting three years. Educational trends in Thailand show that once a child enters a level of schooling she is likely to complete it. However, drop out rates are extremely high after primary school and again after lower secondary school.
According to a 1987 Child and Youth Study, which covered 20,000 households in Thailand, student enrollment in primary level education has declined since 1980. School enrollment can be difficult to interpret depending on the dynamics of the population and the amount of children attending a given level of education. In Thailand evidence shows that primary school is considered universal, and therefore declines in enrollment are a result in changes of the school age cohort size. This change has occurred in Thailand because of the decrease in fertility rates. Enrollment in secondary education has remained constant from 1980 to 1991. If there was no change in the participation rate we would expect enrollment to decline along with fertility, but since secondary school is not universal we can conclude that a higher percentage of the population was attending secondary school in 1991 than in 1980.
One important implication in the reduction of the cohort size, and in turn enrollment in primary education schooling, is the abundance of primary schools. Many of these facilities are being converted into lower secondary level schools. The government has found it cost effective to use existing resources, including both buildings and staff, to enhance the presence of secondary education and further promote educational attainment. In essence, the decline in fertility rates in Thailand has resulted in a relatively easy expansion of education on the macro level.
To dissect the micro level effects of a declining family size Knodel examined two separate studies conducted in Thailand. The first was the Thailand Demographic and Health Study (TDHS) conducted in 1987; the second is a smaller more specific study focusing on the direct effect of family size called the Socio-Economic Consequences of Fertility Decline for the Thai Family (SEC). The first of the studies examined the determinants of educational attainment other than family size in an attempt to produce unbiased results. These factors included sex and age of the child, parent’s expectations, proximity of schools, parent’s education and socio-economic standing. The results clearly indicate that the percentage of children entering lower and upper secondary school declines with family size. This was true regardless of whether the results were adjusted to account for family and community differences. Further manipulation of the model determined that family size had a more negative correlation with middle and high-income families. This is because the probability of very low-income families sending their children to secondary school is small regardless of the number of children they have. Another interesting distinction arose between urban and rural families. Urban family size had a smaller negative effect on school attendance than rural family size. This can be attributed to easier accessibility of schools in the urban area along with the heightened opportunity cost of sending rural children to school. Jobs in urban areas are more likely to require schooling than those jobs associated with rural areas. Although family size had a smaller effect on urban children’s lower secondary school attendance, family size is more apparent when it comes to upper secondary education for urban children.
As with the TDHS, the SEC data also showed a negative association between family size and entrance into upper level education. The study was done in a similar manner, by looking at the effects of increased family size on the percentage of children entering both lower and upper secondary school, while controlling for outside factors which influence the educational choices of children. Results clearly indicated that a "reduction in the percentage of children attaining either lower or upper secondary education is associated with each increase in the number of children" (291). In contrast to the first study, this study investigated some of the possible explanations for the negative relationship between education attainment and family size in Thailand. The survey showed that the parents cover almost all the costs associated with sending a child to school, with little or no help from the government, relatives or friends. These costs, including the opportunity costs, increase as the child progresses through higher levels of education. The survey found that the major deciding factor in terminating children’s education was income constraints. This means that as family size increases available funds per child decreases, resulting in less educational attainment for children in larger families.
In Thailand, Knodel concludes that the decrease in the fertility rate has led to more children receiving education. The decrease in fertility has decreased the cohort size of children of educational attaining ages. Firstly, this decrease has resulted in the ability of the government to use existing primary school facilities as secondary education buildings. Secondly, the government has used the extra funds to expand and promote the overall level of education in Thailand. Similarly, the decline in fertility has changed family structures, with smaller families becoming the norm, resulting in more expenditure per child. The children of these smaller Thailand families are attaining higher levels of education, often reaching both lower and upper secondary school in addition to required primary schooling.
Education is a way of investing in the future, in essence spending on human capital which can benefit the economic development of a country. The decisions to send a child to school are made on a family basis and are effected by many factors, such as income, sex, position of child, and proximity of schools. The decisions are made at the micro level, and each individual family weighs the factors differently. One similarity that both Knodel and Degraff et al have indicated is the negative relationship between family size and educational attainment of children. In other words, declines in fertility do facilitate the economic growth of countries through increased child investment.
Deborah S. DeGraff, Richard E. Bilsborrow and Alejandro Herrin. "Children's Education in the Philippines: Does High Fertility Matter?" Population Research and Policy Review, Vol. 15, June 1996, pp. 219-247.
John Knodel. "Fertility Decline and Children's Education in Thailand". Fertility, Family Size and Structure: Consequences for Families and Children, Population Council, 1993, pp. 267-296.