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Will population growth delay or accelerate economic growth?

 February 28,

March 5 and 7, 2001

  

 

   

 Allen Kelley

Contents:

 Topics to be Discussed  General Reading Assignment
 Links  Individual Reading Assignments
 Supplements  

Topics to be Discussed

 

I. What growth models tell us

 

II. What the data tell us

 

III. Population and the the Asian Miracle

Back to the Beginning

Back to Contents

General Reading Assignment

 

Kelley, Allen C. and Robert M. Schmidt, "Toward a Cure for Myopia and Tunnel Vision of the Population Debate: A Dose of Historical Perspective" by in The Impact of Population Growth on Well-Being in Developing Countries, Dennis A. Ahlburg, Allen C. Kelley and Karen Oppenheim Mason (editors), Springer Verlag, New York, 1996, pp. 11-35.

and

Mason, Andrew, "Will Population Change Sustain the 'Asian Economic Miracle'?" in Asia Pacific Issues, No. 33, October 1997, pp. 1-6.

 

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Individual Reading Assignments

 

(Two-page report due on February 28)

 Group A Group B Group C Group D Group E

Group A

 

"Aggregate Population and Economic Growth Correlations: The Role of the Components of Demographic Change" by Allen Kelley and Robert Schmidt in Demography, Vol. 32, No. 4, November 1995, pp. 543-555.

 

Group B

 

"The Role of Fertility and Population in Economic Growth", by James A. Brander and Steve Dowrick Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 7, 1994, pp. 1-25.

 

Group C

 

(1) Where in the World is Population Growth Bad? by Jeff Kling and Lant Prichett, World Bank, 1995.

(2) "Population, Factor Accumulation and Productivity" by Lant Pritchett, World Bank Working Paper, September 28, 1994, pp. 1- 31.

 

Group D

 

"Julian Simon and the Population Growth Debate" by Dennis A. Ahlburg, in Population and Development Review, June 1998, Vol. 24, No. 2, pp. 317-327.

Paul M. Sommers and Daniel B. Suits, "A Cross-Section Model of Economic Growth" in the Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 53, 1971, pp. 121-128.

Sandeep K. Gupta and Paul M. Sommers, "A Simple Cross-Section Model of Economic Growth Stands the Test of Time", forthcoming.

 

Group E.

 

(1) "Population Growth and Economic Growth: Some More Correlations", by Robin Barlow, in Population and Development Review, Vol. 20, No. 1, pp. 153-165. And

(2) "The Growing Gap Between Rich and Poor Countries: A Proposed Explanation", by Edmund J. Sheehey in World Development, Vol. 24, No. 8, August 1996, pp. 1379-1384.

 

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Links

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Supplements

Contents:

Academic Articles:

Contents:

Causes of Demographic Change

What is the effect of transition to a market economy on fertility and mortality?

Bryant, John, "Communism, Poverty, and Demographic Change in North Vietnam, in the Population and Development Review, Vol. 24, No. 2, June 1998, pp. 235-269.

and

Pearson, Ruth, "Renegotiating the Reproductive Bargain: Gender Analysis of Economic Transition in Cuba in the 1990s, in Development and Change, Vol. 28, No. 4, Oct. 1997, pp. 671-705.

and

Shkolnikov, V. M., G. A. Cornia, D. A. Leon and F. Mesle, "Causes of the Russian Mortality Crisis: Evidence and Interpretations", in World Development, Vol. 26, No. 11, November 1998., 1995-2012.

 

and

Brainerd, Elizabeth, "Market reform and Mortality in Transition Economies", in World Development, Vol. 26, No. 11, November 1998., 2013-2028.

Consequences of Demographic Change

How important are demographic factors in explaining increased income inequality?

Bishop, John A., John P. Formby and W. James Smith, "Demographic Change and Income Inequality in the United States, 1976-1989." in.............

 

What has been the effect of a doubling of India's population over the last 20 years?

Repetto, Robert, "The 'Second India' revisited: Population Growth, Poverty, and Environment Over Two Decades" in Population, Environment, and Development, edited by R. K. Pachuri and Lubina F. Qureshy, Tata Energy and Resources Institute, 1997. pp. 154-175.

 

What has been the effect of population growth on the long term growth of the Industrialized nations?

Simon, Julian, "Demographic Causes and Consequences of the Industrial Revolution" in the Journal of European Economic History, Vol. 23, No. 1, Spring 1994, pp. 141-158.

 

Do high population growth rates reduce national savings rates?

Kelley, Allen C. and Robert M. Schmidt, "Saving, Dependency and Development", in the Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 9, No. 4, November 1996, pp. 365-386.

and

Deaton, Angus S. and Christina H. Paxon, "The Effects of Economic and Population Growth on National Saving and Inequality", in Demography, Vol. 34, No. 1, February 1997, pp. 97-114.

 

 

What are the effects of population growth in developing countries?

Kelley, Allen C., "Economic Consequences of Population Change in the Third World" in the Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 26, December 1988, pp. 1685-1728.

and

Cincotta, Richard P. and Robert Engleman, Economics and Rapid Change, Occasional Paper No. 3, Population Action International, 1997.

 

What role did the demographic transition play in the "Asian Miracle"?

Bloom, David E. and Jeffrey G. Williamson, "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia", in the World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 12, No. 3, September 1998, pp. 419-455.

and

Higgins, Matthew, "Age Structure Dynamics in Asia and Dependence on Foreign Capital" in the Population and Development Review, Vol. 23, No. 2, June 1997, pp.,261-293.

 

How strong are the links between population and poverty?

McNicoll, Geoffrey, Population and Poverty:A Review and Restatement, Population Council Policy Research Division Working Paper, No. 105, 1997.